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富達快訊: 日本地震料將引發亞洲市場下跌

Mar 17, 2011 , Posted by Diamond Recruit at 4:25 PM



商業及金融業的未來一週

亞洲聚焦日本地震對民眾及金融市場的影響 – 在日本大地震的陰霾下,亞洲市場在本週開市料將由不安情緒主
導。至今,官方公佈傷亡人數已超過1,000人,而且估計數字會繼續攀升至10,000人以上。當地核電廠爆炸的危
機應會持續觸動投資者對持有日本股票和債券的憂慮。

日本央行繼縮短定期政策會議後,今早再度召開會議。市場觀察家認為煉油廠、工廠和發電廠停止運作,將直
接影響本季的經濟活動,因此央行應加強流動性措施。日本經濟在去年第四季收縮1.3%。日圓自週五起上升
0.6%,今早報81.54。有關升勢反映投資者預期日本經歷140年來最嚴重的地震後,救災工作將令資金需求增
加。東京證券交易所表示其運作並未受到重大影響,市場將於當地時間上午九時正開市。日經期貨在上個交易
日下跌2%。

其他亞洲市場方面,印度央行將於週三議息,預期當局將會通過連續第八次加息。此外,澳洲儲備銀行亦會發
表最新會議紀錄,而澳洲和中國將公佈領先指標的表現。

美國通脹、製造業及貨幣政策成市場焦點 – 美國整體通脹在1月份是連續兩個月報0.4%,預料2月份的數據亦將
處於相若的水平。同時,核心通脹維持在2.0%以下的受控水平。投資者憧憬這個趨勢將在2月份延續。上週五
公佈的美國零售銷售數據符合預期,另一項數據亦反映物價壓力保持溫和。

本週最重要的消息為聯儲局的預定政策公佈。預期當局不會作出重大的政策調整,但由於美國經濟穩步復甦,
市場將高度注視聯儲局會否釋出有關退市時間的訊號。此外,利比亞局勢持續動盪,而該國屬略為重要的產油
國,因此市場應會繼續關注當地形勢。

週內公佈的其他重要數據包括紐約州製造業調查。這項調查由紐約聯邦儲備銀行進行,是紐約州製造業商業景
氣的指標。在2月份,整體商業景氣指數由1月的11.9升至15.4,是自去年6月以來的最高水平。市場普遍預測數
據將在3月份進一步改善。另外,費城聯邦工廠指數亦將於本週稍後公佈,該指數是美國東岸工廠活動的指標。
分析員預期有關數據繼在2月份走高後,將於3月份放緩。

歐洲市場的消息不多 - 鑑於業績期快將結束,歐洲市場在本週的消息較為淡靜。主要消息有大型航空公司德國
漢莎航空的報告。該公司將披露上週公佈的盈利數字詳情,航運和歐洲消費前景料將成為投資者關注的焦點。
另外,本週中段將公佈歐元區通脹數字。初步數據顯示年率化通脹率為2.4%,高於央行一般訂定的2%目標。歐
洲央行行長特里謝的言論曾暗示可能加息,若最終數據有任何變動,市場對加息的預期將會加重。


美國市場

雖然日本發生地震及美國的零售銷售溫和,但美股仍然上揚 – 雖然日本發生140年以來最強烈的地震,但美國
股市於週五仍然上揚,因為市場預期日本的重建工程將帶動相關需求,刺激部份公司造好。沙特阿拉伯的示威
秩序相對良好,令投資者感到安心。美國的零售銷售增加1.0%,但由於天然氣價格攀升,市場預期銷售急
跌,拖累消費信心回落。商業銷售在1月份錄得10個月以來的最大升幅,但由於公司估計需求增加,帶動存貨
增長高於預期。在週五,道瓊斯工業平均指數升0.5%,納斯達克指數升0.4%,而標準普爾500指數則升
0.7%。


歐洲市場

日本地震及中東局勢拖累歐洲股市下跌 – 日本發生地震和海嘯,加上歐元區債務危機的憂慮,拖累歐洲及英國
股市走低。倫敦富時指數下跌0.3%,法國CAC指數下跌0.9%,而德國DAX指數則跌1.2%。有關股市已連續第
三週報跌。歐洲領袖上週五在赫爾辛基舉行會議,就歐元區的長遠經濟改革計劃達成協議。然而,會議亦引發
不少爭論。例如,愛爾蘭就去年獲得的675億歐元援助貸款爭取較佳的條款,但拒絕提高偏低的企業稅率,導
致與會領袖否決有關要求。各國領袖正式同意把歐盟目前可借出的臨時援助金額增至總值5,000億歐元,並同
意在2013年臨時基金屆滿時,成立規模相同的新永久基金,措施的具體細節將於三月底舉行歐盟峰會時全面
公佈。

亞洲市場


亞洲市場下挫 – 美股因環球經濟憂慮下跌,亞洲股市跟隨顯著下挫。利比亞和沙特阿拉伯的地緣政治憂慮持
續,加上歐洲主權債務的憂慮重燃,令股市受壓。日本方面,全面股類報跌,拖累日經指數跌1.7%,而地震
在東京股市收市前一刻發生。美股下跌、地緣政治憂慮升溫、沙特阿拉伯和利比亞的最新局勢發展,以及歐洲
主權債務危機重燃,均對亞洲股市早段的氣氛構成負面影響。




The week ahead in business and finance

Human and financial market impacts of Japan’s earthquake the focus for Asia – Markets are due for a
nervous start to the trading week in Asia following the devastating earthquake. The official number of casualties
has risen to over 1,000 and the number is expected to rise beyond 10,000. Fears over a nuclear meltdown are
likely to keep investors nervous on exposure to Japan’s equity and bond markets.

The Bank of Japan meets again this morning after cutting short its regular policy meeting. Market observers
suggest the Board could announce measures to boost liquidity in the wake of closures to oil refineries, factories
and power stations which will directly impact economic activity in this current quarter. The Japanese economy
contracted 1.3% in the fourth quarter. The yen has risen 0.6% since Friday, trading this morning at 81.54. The
rise suggests investors anticipate increased funds being applied to resurrect the country from its worst
earthquake in 140 years. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has advised its operations have not been materially
impacted and the market will open for trade at 9:00am local time. At last trade, Nikkei futures were down 2%.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to pass its 8th consecutive interest rate rise when the
board meets on Wednesday. Minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting will also be released,
while leading indicators for Australia and China are also due out.

US inflation, manufacturing and monetary policy in focus – For the second month in a row, headline US
inflation came in at 0.4% for January and is expected to remain at a similar level in February. Measures of core
inflation have remained within comfort levels, staying below 2.0%. Investors will hope to see a similar trend for
February. Data out last Friday showed US retail sales results were within expectations, in keeping with an
assessment of benign price pressures.

The most important routine event in the US will be the Federal Reserve’s scheduled policy announcement. No
major policy change is expected but with the US economy recovering quite nicely, markets will be very interested
to see if there are any hints about the timing of stimulus withdrawal in the future. Meanwhile, ongoing instability in
Libya, a moderately significant oil producing nation, is also likely to remain an area of interest for the markets.

Other data of interest will be the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. This series, conducted by the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York, measures business conditions for manufacturers in the New York State area. In
February, the general business conditions index rose to 15.4, up from 11.9 in January and its highest reading
since June. Consensus market expectations suggest further improvement is likely in March. This will be followed
later in the week by the Philly Fed Factory Index, a gauge of factory activity in the US Mid-Atlantic region.
Analysts expect some moderation from February’s elevated reading when March data is released.

Limited releases to mark a quieter week for Europe - It is likely to be a quieter week for European markets as
they approach the end of their earnings reporting season. A key highlight will be the presentation from large
airline operator, Deutsche Lufthansa. The company will provide details on its earnings numbers released last
week, with investor interest clearly in the outlook for airline traffic and the European consumer. Mid-week we’ll
see the Euro-zone inflation reading. The initial release showed an annualised 2.4%, above the 2% target
generally followed when setting policy measures. Any change to the final reading may add weight to expectations
about an interest rate increase foreshadowed in commentary from European Central Bank President Jean
Claude Trichet.

US markets

US stocks up despite earthquake, muted retail sales – Stocks were up Friday despite the strongest
earthquake to hit Japan in 140 years as some companies benefited from expectations for increased demand
from rebuilding efforts. Investors were also relieved that protests in Saudi Arabia were relatively orderly. US
retail sales were up 1.0% but consumer sentiment dropped back as expectations plunged thanks to higher gas
prices. Business sales increased in January by the largest amount in 10 months while inventories grew more
than expected as companies anticipated greater demand. On the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
advanced 0.5%, the Nasdaq was up 0.4% and the Standard and Poor’s 500 gained 0.7%.

European markets

European stocks down on earthquake, Middle-east impacts – Japan’s earthquake and tsunami combined
with euro debt fears and sent stocks lower in Europe and the UK. London’s FTSE was down 0.3%, France’s
CAC dropped 0.9% and Germany’s DAX declined 1.2%. Stocks were down for the third consecutive week.
European leaders met in Helsinki on Friday and agreed on a program of long term economic changes to the
Euro-zone. But the meeting was marked by several bitter disputes. For example, Ireland sought better terms on
the €67.5 billion bailout it received last year but was rebuffed after refusing to contemplate raising its low
corporate tax rate. The leaders formally agreed to increase the amount the EU's current temporary bailout
facilities can lend to a total of €500 billion. They also agreed to create a new, permanent fund of the same size in
2013 when the temporary fund expires. The measures will be fully fleshed out by the EU summit to be held at
the end of March.

Asian markets

Asian markets trade lower – Markets here were sharply lower following US stocks downward on global
economic concerns. Continuing geopolitical concerns in Libya and Saudi Arabia and renewed concerns about
European sovereign debt weighed on stocks. In Japan, the Nikkei dropped 1.7% with all sectors registering
losses. The earthquake struck just before the close of Tokyo stock trading. Along with the declines in US stocks,
growing geopolitical concerns, fresh developments in Saudi Arabia and Libya as well as resurfacing sovereign
debt concerns in Europe negatively affected market sentiment in Asia’s morning session.


聲明:
上述資料只應作為個人投資風險程度的分析及指引,不應作為 投資結論。
以上資料僅供參考之用,投資選擇過去的業績並不代表將來表現。
由於投資組合頗多元化,加上匯率及利率浮動,投資選擇單位 及收益回報可升亦可跌。






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