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Financial Tips: 全球市場調整的背景資料 2/7

Jul 2, 2010 , Posted by Diamond Recruit at 3:43 PM



週二(6月29日)、週三(6月30日)亞洲股市、歐洲股市及華爾街股市調整,人們越來越擔心全球經濟雙底衰退。美國會議委員會(Conference Board)修改了其對中國經濟領先指標,中國股票大幅下滑至6個星期低位。

展望未來,股票投資人的不安日漸加劇,因為擔心歐洲週邊國家的金融困境可能拖累歐陸的經濟前景,而導致全球經濟再度陷入全面衰退。亞洲方面,中國為抑制不動產市場過度成長所採取的降溫措施,恐將不敵通膨攀升的壓力,而南北韓日益緊張的對立局勢,加上日本執政者的變動頻繁,過去四年內換了四任首相,更加深了亞洲政局的不確定性,這些都讓投資人感到憂心。

所幸亞洲的財政狀況穩健,各國政府得以在需要時延長經濟刺激措施。此種狀況下,該區的長期基本面依然穩健,區內貿易與國內消費持續成長,可望撐起該區不斷茁壯的自立能力。

此外,最近國內勞工糾紛不斷,加上一連串工人自殺事件,引發中國多個省分考慮調高最低工資規定,令人憂慮通脹將會加劇。不過,此舉最終可能推高國內消費,令到經濟發展更加平衡。


On Tuesday (Jun. 29) and Wednesday (Jun. 30) Asian stocks fell, tracking sharp Europe and Wall Street decline overnight, amid mounting fears of a double-dip recession in the global economy. The Conference Board revised its leading economic index for China, contributing to the biggest sell-off in Chinese equities in six weeks.

Looking ahead, equity investors are becoming increasingly nervous amid fears that Europe’s financially troubled periphery may dim the Continent’s prospects and possibly trigger a relapse in the global economy as a whole. In Asia, there are worries that China’s moves to cool its runaway property market may not be sufficient to prevent inflationary pressures rising, while political instability has been exacerbated by the escalating row between the two Koreas as well as Japan’s revolving door politics that has seen four prime ministers resign in the last four years.

However, Asia’s strong fiscal position give governments the option to extend pump priming should the need arise. As such, long-term fundamentals for the region remain robust, with rising intra-regional trade and domestic consumerism underpinning the region’s growing self-reliance.

In addition, there are concerns over rising minimum wage in several Chinese provinces, which may worsen inflation. But these wage hikes, which are partly the result of growing labour disputes and a spate of worker suicides, could eventually boost domestic consumption and create a more balanced economy.


聲明:

上述資料只應作為個人投資風險程度的分析及指引,不應作為 投資結論。
以上資料僅供參考之用,投資選擇過去的業績並不代表將來表現。
由於投資組合頗多元化,加上匯率及利率浮動,投資選擇單位 及收益回報可升亦可跌。






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