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希臘、葡萄牙及西班牙被調低信貸評級及後續發展

May 3, 2010 , Posted by Diamond Recruit at 11:51 AM





希臘、葡萄牙及西班牙信貸評級的降低確實會對持有這些國家主權債務的機構或經濟体產生影響。
 

該次事件的影響長短取決於德國。如果德國不情願打開他們的銀包,歐洲債務風暴則會較預期時間久。

 「歐洲5國」(指葡萄牙、意大利、愛爾蘭、希臘及西班牙)危機並不會進一步拖累歐元,但會減慢歐元區的經濟復甦。具有讽刺意味的是,由於在歐元區的主要出口市場中「歐洲5國」危機使歐元兌美元下跌,這次危機幫助了歐元區尤其是德國的出口。

 「歐洲5國」危機真正的作用,是英國及美國可能發生更加嚴重的主權債務危機的預警。兩個國家都由於面對財政赤字擴大、遲緩的經濟復甦, 以及即將舉行政治選舉而拖慢政策推行, 而有潛在的降低主權信用評級的風險。

 漣漪效應 – 由於希臘沒有大型投資銀行,因此相關對手風險輕微。然而,希臘政府債券的投資者眾多,所涉及的風險牽連極廣,甚至比雷曼破產後的影響更巨大。許多信貸投資者偏重投資於歐洲銀行業,故相信援助行動將會相當迅速,對於第一和第二市場的影響將會舉足輕重。迄今並沒有大規模的新債供應,但今年歐洲仍需要發行約6,000 億歐元新債。其中大部份由法國和德國發行。從發行規模而言,歐洲仍然有再融資的風險。
 

海外市場的反應 – 由於英、美本身財赤問題同樣嚴重,相信兩國將會繼續監察著事態的發展。
 

貨幣掛勾 – 經濟學者普遍認為發生重大危機時,正好有足夠能力容許貨幣貶值。曾幾何時,印尼和台灣也是透過把貨幣貶值而安然渡過危機。因此,阿聯酋、歐元區和美國因貨幣掛勾而無法調整結構,結果備受結構問題困擾。
 

監管限制 – 根據馬斯特例赫特條約和巴塞爾協定的規定,歐洲的銀行監管法規和財政聯盟體有需要作出全面的改革。
 

因此, 我們的看法是,維持亞洲的正面看法;美國、英國及日本中性至正面;歐盟中性。歐洲將可度過難關,但是復甦之路更可能是“U”形而非“V”形。我們相信除了投資情緒,經濟上的問題大致上只影響歐洲, 而對亞洲的影響很小。。


Downgrades on Greek, Portugal and Spain credit ratings would definitely impact those who held sovereign debts issued by those countries. 
 

Duration of the incident may depend on Germany. The storm might be a little longer than expected if the Germany is reluctant to open their wallets.
 

PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain)crisis is not likely to lead to unraveling of Euro, but will slow Eurozone recovery.  Ironically, the PIIGS crisis helps Eurozone exporters, especially Germany, as it has weakened Euro relative to USD in key export markets.
 

Real issue of PIIGS is as potential forewarning of more severe sovereign debt crisis in UK and US, both of which face potential downgrades in face of expanded fiscal deficits, sluggish recovery, and impending elections which threaten to paralyze political process.
 

Contagion effects – with no large, significant investment banks in Greece, the risks of counterparty linkage should be small. However, the ownership of Greek government bonds is much larger, and the risks more significant than those posed in the Lehman crisis. Many credit investors are liable to be overweight European banks, leading to swift action and it will be important to see the impact on the primary and secondary markets. There has been no notable front-loading of issuance so far and around EUR600 billion still needs to be issued in Europe this year. Much of this is accounted for by France and Germany, but the scale of this issuance means there is some refinancing risk evident within Europe.
 

Reactions overseas – We believe the US and UK will continue to watch these developments closely given their own underlying deficit problems.
 

Currency pegging – Economists generally see the ability to devalue currencies in a crisis as key – a development that helped Indonesia and Taiwan in the past. As such, the UAE, the Eurozone and the US are facing structural stresses as pegged currencies make structural adjustment impossible.
 

Regulatory limitations – Given the limitations of the Maastricht Treaty and Basel II, there needs to be a complete overhaul of banking regulation and fiscal union in Europe.
 

Thus, our house view remains positive on Asia; neutral to positive on US, UK and Japan; neutral to EU.  Europe will weather the storm, but recovery will be more of a U than a V. We believe except on sentiment side, economically the problem is largely contained in Europe and has little impact on Asia.

聲明:

上述資料只應作為個人投資風險程度的分析及指引,不應作為 投資結論。
以上資料僅供參考之用,投資選擇過去的業績並不代表將來表現。
由於投資組合頗多元化,加上匯率及利率浮動,投資選擇單位 及收益回報可升亦可跌。






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