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Financial Tips: 歐洲主權債務危機分析

Feb 26, 2010 , Posted by Diamond Recruit at 4:17 PM



提要

由希臘債務危機引起之風險胃納的減少可能對亞洲股票基金產生短期不確定影響。然而在中長期,市場應都會逐漸意識到亞洲國家的財政狀況和經濟基本面遠比「歐洲5國」健康。所以我們對亞洲股票的增持看法保持不變。

相反,歐洲股票基金可能會受到較大影響。除了「歐洲5國」以外,一些主要歐洲國家例如英國的財政狀況也正在惡化。此外, 歐元區成員國的一些政治既得利益也可能拖廷快速達成解決危機方案的進度。

由於投資者要求較高的風險溢
价,短近期造成市場可能會比較波動。 假如希臘危機不殃及池魚,預期環球股票市場預期仍會表現理想。


背景

歐洲貨幣聯盟 (EMU)領袖們發表聲明支持希臘對減少財政赤字所作的努力。歐盟財政部長同意, 希臘最遲在3月16日之前,需要顯示出減少今年GDP預算赤字4%的進展。

另外,希臘宣佈聘請一位前高盛執行董事作爲新的債務重組機構主管。

公立及私營機構工會在希臘舉行大罷工反對旨在削減希臘財政赤字的措施。


經濟影響及投資點評

希臘危機會測試歐盟的決心但也會因爲即時的解決方案效果並不明顯而延續幾個季度。德國抗拒抵制紧急(财政)援助,歐盟領袖們也不情願去向國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)尋求幫助。德國的紧急(财政)援助或者IMF的救助方案可能解決該次問題。

希臘處理自己的財政收支不平衡的反應遲緩。愛爾蘭和西班牙已經在危機發生前後即刻做出了足夠的努力去處理財政赤字問題以安撫市場。

「歐洲5國」危機並不會進一步拖累歐元,但會減慢歐元區的經濟復甦。具有讽刺意味的是,由於「歐洲5國」危機使歐元兌美元在歐元區的主要出口市場下跌,這次危機幫助了歐元區尤其是德國的出口。

「歐洲5國」危機真正的作用,是作為對在英國及美國可能發生更加嚴重的主權債務危機的預警。兩個國家都由於面對財政赤字擴大、遲緩的經濟復甦, 以及拖延危機處理進程的政治選舉, 而有潛在的降低主權信用評級的危險。

因此, 我們的投資看法是,維持亞洲的正面看法;美國中性至正面;英國及歐盟中性。歐洲將可度過難關,但是復甦之路更可能是“U”形而非“V”形。而英國的復甦之路很有可能是一個“L”形。我們相信除了投資情緒,經濟上的問題大致上只影響歐洲, 而對亞洲的影響很小。


投資相連產品基金之影響

亞洲股票基金
由希臘債務危機引起之風險胃納的減少可能對亞洲股票基金產生短期不確定影響。然而在中長期,市場應都會逐漸意識到亞洲國家的財政狀況和經濟基本面遠比「歐洲5國」健康。所以我們對亞洲股票的增持看法保持不變。

歐洲股票基金
相反,歐洲股票基金可能會受到較大影響。除了「歐洲5國」以外,一些主要歐洲國家例如英國的財政狀況也正在惡化。此外, 歐元區成員國的一些政治既得利益也可能拖廷快速達成解決危機方案的進度。

環球股票基金
由於投資者要求較高的風險溢价,短近期造成市場可能會比較波動。 假如希臘危機不殃及池魚,預期環球股票市場仍會表現理想。




Highlights

Decrease in risk appetite caused by Greek debt crisis may have short term uncertain impact on Asian equity funds.  In the mid to longer term, however, the market should gradually realize the fiscal position and economic fundamentals of Asian countries are far healthier than PIGS.  Hence, our overweight call on Asian equities remains unchanged.

In contrast, European equity funds may suffer more.  In addition to PIGS, the fiscal positions of some major European countries such as UK is deteriorating.  Also, political vested interests among the member countries of euro zone would be a drag on reaching a quick resolution to the crisis.

There will be near term volatility as investors demand higher risk premium.  Assuming Greek crisis will not turn into a full-blown financial contagion, global equities are still expected to outperform.


Background

European Monetary Union (EMU) leaders issued a statement in support of Greece’s efforts to reduce its fiscal deficit.  EU finance ministers agreed that Greece be given until March 16 to show progress of cutting its budget gap by 4%, in GDP terms, this year.

Separately, Greece announced a new head to its debt management agency, a former Goldman Sachs executive.

Public- and private-sector unions in Greece went on strike to protest against measures aimed at reducing Greece’s budget deficit.


Economic Impact & House View

Greek crisis will test EU resolve and will linger for several quarters as immediate solution is not apparent.  Germany is resisting a bailout and EU leaders are reluctant to go to IMF. German bailout or IMF package would resolve the problem.

Greece is the laggard in terms of addressing its fiscal imbalance.  Ireland and Spain have already made strong efforts before and since the crisis to address fiscal deficits sufficiently to calm markets.

PIIGS crisis is not likely to lead to unraveling of Euro, but will slow Eurozone recovery.  Ironically, the PIIGS crisis helps Eurozone exporters, especially Germany, as it has weakened Euro relative to USD in key export markets.

Real issue of PIIGS is as potential forewarning of more severe sovereign debt crisis in UK and US, both of which face potential downgrades in face of expanded fiscal deficits, sluggish recovery, and impending elections which threaten to paralyze political process.

Thus, our house view remains positive on Asia; neutral to positive on US; and neutral on UK and EU.  Europe will weather the storm, but recovery will be more of a U than a V and possibly a L in the case of UK.  We believe except on sentiment side, economically the problem is largely contained in Europe and has little impact on Asia.


Implications for ILP Funds

Asian Equity Funds
Decrease in risk appetite caused by Greek debt crisis may have short term uncertain impact on Asian equity funds.  In the mid to longer term, however, the market should gradually realize the fiscal position and economic fundamentals of Asian countries are far healthier than PIGS.  Hence, our overweight call on Asian equities remains unchanged.

European Equity Funds
In contrast, European equity funds may suffer more.  In addition to PIGS, the fiscal positions of some major European countries such as UK and Italy are deteriorating.  Also, political vested interests among the member countries of euro zone would be a drag on reaching a quick resolution to the crisis.

Global Equity Funds
There will be near term volatility as investors demand higher risk premium.  Assuming Greek crisis will not turn into a full-blown financial contagion, global equities are still expected to outperform.



聲明:
上述資料只應作為個人投資風險程度的分析及指引,不應作為 投資結論。
以上資料僅供參考之用,投資選擇過去的業績並不代表將來表現。
由於投資組合頗多元化,加上匯率及利率浮動,投資選擇單位 及收益回報可升亦可跌。



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